Rational Advisor

We are irrational in predictable ways

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Dec 28 2007

Death of Bhutto and what it means to the markets

Published by rational at 2:46 am under Uncategorized Edit This

It is a sad day, that Benazir Bhutto was killed.

My own thoughts are that it was an event that had a very high probability. After all, on the day she arrived there was a bombing - the eventual was in plain view.

You have a country run by a person who has had so much control of power, and did not want to relinquish it. As a normal citizen he would not have been able to milk the system as he had as a politician. Power is a strange thing - very hard to give up. I do not know who did this and nor do I really want to speculate. I don’t think we’ll ever really know the truth.

Bush and his propoganda team will blame the terrorists - remember there is an election year, and the Republicans need to show that they are the strongest party to fight terrorism.

So, you see this unfortunate event will be manipulated.

I was never a fan of Bhutto or any of the other leaders in that region. She had run a very corrupt regime when she was in power. Her husband was known as the 5% man, in that all trade in pakistan, had to have 5% forwarded to him.

See links below on corruption and Bhutto
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benazir_Bhutto
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/337983.stm
http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/11/bhutto_and_corruption.php
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iL0MGl15QNk&feature=related (This is in Urdu)

None of the leaders that followed her were any better.

But, this event has led to some further misplaced uncertainty in the world and the markets. In reality, Pakistan does not produce a lot what the world needs - there is no Oil to really speak of. And anything that is produced there can also be produced in other places. So, this event in of itself, has no real economic effect.

Bhutto was not running the government. The government and economy will continue to run as it was before, after a short pause. Life will return to normality.

it is sad, but this really is a non-event when it comes to the markets. The news media needs something to pump out and magnify. Gold and Oil supply did not all of a sudden drop because of this death.

She was no great leader, she had not left the country any richer for her being there. This was an event that almost everybody I had talked to in the country had said was obvious.

What I am saddened by is the turmoil that will happen in the short term, that will affect many innocent lives in Pakistan. You will see riots, as those who have lost their lottery ticket to power see it disappar, and want to cause as much wrath as possible to destablize the population.

We seem to want democracy to rule, and think that is the solution - democracy only works where there is a higher level of prosperity and mass Education. Countries such as in the Middle East do not run successfully in a democracy! Democracy is not the solution - gainful employment, wealth, commerce and education is!

You may even hear of an audio (note: not video) from the terrorists. My own personnel view is that Osama died a long time ago, remember he had a weak kidney, and was on dialysis. He had many opportunities to show a video tape of himself, but none has been around. What also amazes me is that the US with the “best” military and “intelligence” in the world has not been able to capture this one individual - not even with the assistance of the Israeli army. If he is terrorist #1, you would have thought they would have sent over - James Bond, Rambo, Steven Seagal, Jean Claude Van Damme, Bruce Willis, Arnold Schwarzenegger, or any of the other Hollywood superheros. Unfortunately they may as well of sent Mr. Bean! The reason, it is in the current regimes best interest to keep the boogeyman alive. I am very cynical of political events. I am not saying that these terorists are not something to worry about - they are, because of their fanaticism and zeal. Personally, what is the solution - to cut of the problem at the route, get the leaders and the problem goes away - much like what has been done with Bhutto. They need to eliminate the fanatical leaders who stir up people’s emotions - imagine, if Hitler had been assassinated early on, would you have had WW2? What concerns me more is the innocent lives that are lost to such games, our soilders, our friends, our families, and our fellow beings.

I apologize if this rant upsets anyone, these are just my thoughts

Peace to all - and remain rational

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