Rational Advisor

It never ceases to amaze me how many smart people and economists are always referring to the history as a justification for the future. I mean I believe that there are direct comparisons between the Great Depression, Japan and today. BUT, comparison is not proof. And it does not necessarily follow logically that if some event happened in the past in a particular way it will happen again in the same way.

I also believe History does not repeat, but it does rhyme, so the sentiments and the emotions are the same, but the events coming out maybe stronger or weaker.

I am a great fan of history, I don’t take it for the literal events and pass a straight line forward. But, I try to understand it, and learn from the mistakes

Someone once said

To know the future, to understand the present, you must know the past

A lot of people are penalizing the stock markets because of this last volatility, and the terribel year that 2008 was. But, it wouldn’t be wise to judge Tiger Woods by one bad tournament and it isn’t wise to measure good managers during a decline that has only happened a handful of times in 50-100 years. That’s my opinion at least.